NBC’s triumphant fall, in which it saw big ratings gains thanks to “Sunday Night Football” and No. 1 new show “Heroes,” has given way to a disappointing spring.
All four of its new midseason shows have flopped, and several veteran programs look weak as the May upfront approaches. Two weeks ago the network slipped behind last year’s average for the first time this season, raising a serious question for media buyers: Can NBC recover next year?
Season to date, the network is averaging a 3.3 adults 18-49 rating and a 9 share, down 3 percent from a 3.4/9 at the same point last season. It’s in fourth place, 0.2 rating points behind ABC and down 11 percent from fourth quarter, when it was averaging a solid 3.7/10.
Much of the problem is the poor performance of new shows “Andy Barker, P.I.,” “Raines,” “Grease: You’re the One That I Want” and “The Black Donnellys,” which are all averaging below a 2.8 rating. It’s doubtful any will return, despite mostly favorable critical response to the three scripted programs.
NBC had two years of sinking ratings before last fall’s growth. Next year will be critical for the network to avoid falling way back into the cellar, and much of it will depend on NBC’s new program development.
The network will need to replace a number of sagging older shows, likely including “Crossing Jordan,” “The Apprentice” and “Law & Order” and/or “L&O: Criminal Intent.” That means it will need a crop of not just smart shows but shows that actually interest viewers.
This year many media people felt NBC had the best slate of pilots, but viewers did not agree. Outside of “Heroes,” none of its new shows averaged above a 3.7 rating.
Yet NBC seems likely to renew low-rated “Friday Night Lights” and “30 Rock,” believing they can find an audience, much like “The Office” did after a disappointing first season. That show is now NBC’s top comedy among 18-49s.
The trick is to find some programs that can catch right away. By taking the far-from-sure chance that “Rock” and “Lights” will grow, NBC can’t risk repeating ABC’s mistake from last season. It followed up a strong development year that yielded “Grey’s Anatomy,” “Desperate Housewives” and “Lost” with one in which just one new show was renewed, nearly wiping out the gains from its big successes.
Meanwhile, in broadcast ratings for the week ended March 25:
Among adults 18-49, Fox led with a 4.4 average rating and a 12 share, followed by CBS at 3.5/10, ABC at 3.1/9, NBC at 2.3/6, Univision at 1.5/4, CW at 1.3/4, Telemundo at 0.4/1, Telefutura at 0.2/1 and Azteca at 0.1/0.
Among adults 18-34, Fox led at 3.9/13, followed by CBS at 2.7/9, ABC at 2.6/8, NBC at 1.7/5, Univision at 1.6/5, CW at 1.4/4, Telemundo at 0.4/1, Telefutura at 0.3/1 and Azteca at 0.1/0.
Among adults 25-54, Fox was first at 4.8/12, followed by CBS at 4.3/11, ABC at 3.5/9, NBC at 2.7/7, Univision at 1.5/4, CW at 1.2/3, Telemundo at 0.3/1, Telefutura at 0.2/1 and Azteca at 0.1/0.
Top five (18-49s): 1. Fox’s “American Idol - Tuesday” 11.8; 2. Fox’s “American Idol - Wednesday” 10.4; 3. ABC’s “Grey’s Anatomy” 9.0; 4. ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars” 6.4; 5. Fox’s “'Til Death” 6.1.
Top five (total viewers): 1. Fox’s “American Idol - Tuesday” 29.96 million; 2. Fox’s “American Idol - Wednesday” 27.08 million; 3. ABC’s “Grey’s Anatomy” 22.30 million; 4. ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars”21.80 million; 5. CBS’s “CSI: Miami” 17.66 million.
Bottom five (18-49s): Tie-93. CW’s “America’s Next Top Model - Encore” and “Gilmore Girls” 0.8; Tie-95. ABC’s “Celebrity Debut” and CW’s “The Pussycat Dolls Present: Search for the Next Doll-Encore” 0.7; 97. CW’s “The 7th Heaven” 0.5.
Bottom five (total viewers): 93. CW’s “The Game” 2.14 million; 94. CW’s “Gilmore Girls” 2.08 million; 95. CW’s “America’s Next Top Model - Encore” 1.77 million; 96. CW’s “The Pussycat Dolls Present: Search for the Next Doll-Encore” 1.59 million; 97. CW’s “7th Heaven” 1.38 million.
Show on the rise: “Pussycat Dolls Present: Search for the Next Doll,” CW, Tuesday 9 p.m. This reality talent show grew 27 percent week-to-week among viewers 18-49, from 1.1 rating to a 1.4, despite leading out of a repeat of “Gilmore Girls” at 0.8.
Show on the decline: “Rules of Engagement” CBS, Monday 9:30 p.m. CBS’s new comedy started hot last month but has since cooled considerably, last week posting a 3.6 rating among 18-49s, off 16 percent from a 4.3 the previous week. Last week’s rating was down 23 percent from the 4.7 the show has averaged so far this season.
